In their upcoming best of seven (the first team to win 4 games, wins the series) NHL playoff series, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been given 5 : 3 odds in favour of winning any particular game. What is the chance they will win the best of 7 series against the Montreal Canadiens? (Remember, it could take more than 4 games to win the series!)
3 years ago
Answered By Majid B
P(W)=Probability that Toronto Maple Leafs wins each game
P(L)=Probability that Toronto Maple Leafs loses each game
3 years ago
Answered By Majid B
P(W)=Probability that Toronto Maple Leafs wins each game
P(L)=Probability that Toronto Maple Leafs loses each game
P(W)/P(L)=5/3 , P(W)+P(L)=1 => P(W)/[1-P(W)]=5/3m => P(W)=5/8 , P(L)=3/8
We know that each team plays 6 times in the series.
A: Toronto Maple Leafs wins at least 4 games
P(A)=P(4W)+P(5W)+P(6W)
P(4W)=n(4W)*[P(W)^4]*[P(L)^2]=(6C4)*[(5/8)^4]*[(3/8)]^2]=0.322
P(5W)=n(5W)*[P(W)^5]*[P(L)]=(6C5)*[(5/8)^5]*(3/8)=0.215
P(6W)=n(6W)*[P(W)^6]=(6C6)*[(5/8)^6]=0.060
P(A)=0.322+0.215+0.060=0.597#60%